The 0.4% Bet Nobody Is Watching – A Tail Risk Signal in Oil
I saw a number on Polymarket today: 0.4%. That's the market's implied...
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0xPlanB
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2026-07-21
#Tail Risk
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Market Prices
BTC
Bitcoin
$81,276.9
-0.34%
ETH
Ethereum
$2,405.82
-1.39%
SOL
Solana
$103.36
-1.09%
BNB
BNB Chain
$715.2
-1.43%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.29
-1.71%
DOGE
Dogecoin
$0.0793
-2.06%
ADA
Cardano
$0.2197
-2.66%
AVAX
Avalanche
$9.8
-3.32%
DOT
Polkadot
$1.12
-4.97%
LINK
Chainlink
$11.92
-3.99%
Fear & Greed
55
Greed
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202610
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$81,276.9
1
Ethereum
ETH
$2,405.82
1
Solana
SOL
$103.36
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$715.2
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.29
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0793
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.2197
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$9.8
1
Polkadot
DOT
$1.12
1
Chainlink
LINK
$11.92
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41
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BNB Chain
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Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
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